Using the Internet for distance education. Features, opportunities and forms of distance learning

The lightning pace of the industrial and technological revolution can not only delight futurists with previously unavailable opportunities, but also directly influence the labor market. In addition to the fact that they will give rise to a lot of new, very, very exotic professions, they will also contribute to the disappearance of a number of professions that are quite relevant today into the past. Time is fleeting, and along with such obsolete professions as elevator operators, watchmen and stenographers, competencies that appeared quite recently, back in the 90s, will disappear into oblivion.

As sad as it may be, time takes its toll.

According to the calculations of specialists from Skolkovo, by 2030, the domestic labor market will get rid of 57 professions that exist quite successfully today, and will be replaced by 186 new specialties, the names of many of which may shock you. What is it worth, for example, a bioethicist, a startup mentor, or, in general, a trend watcher/foresighter?! So that you are ready for new reality labor market, Careerist.ru decided to figure out what is happening with professions, and who should choose a new specialty.

15 years of changes

The Atlas of New Professions is a directory prepared by Skolkovo specialists back in 2015, in which they tried to reflect promising and, conversely, dying industries and professions for the next 15-20 years. According to the authors, it should help to understand which industries will actively develop, what technologies and products will be born in them, what specialists will be required, and which will cease to be relevant. As for the latter, among them scientists have identified 57 professions. It is noteworthy that among them you can find both specialties of intellectual work and blue-collar professions. Among specialties based on complex pre-training, computers will primarily replace specialists in transcription, translation, document management, budgeting, archives, notary databases, analytical documents and other specialists whose work is related to data systematization.

It is noteworthy that these are far from the most difficult professions that are threatened by computers. Among them were also dispatchers and medical specialists in diagnosing diseases. As for real estate agents and travel agency workers, everything is natural here - the development of online services encourages people to order travel services and buy real estate on their own - after all, these are just intermediaries generating added value.

Besides them, The number of unclaimed professionals by 2030 will include economists, accountants, lawyers and managers. Already today, there is an oversupply of managers and lawyers in the labor market, especially among junior ranks - ambitious young people who want to get a prestigious profession enroll en masse in specialized humanitarian universities, after which they successfully join the ranks of the unemployed. Soon, lawyers will become irrelevant in general – today. A similar fate awaits accountants - there are more than 1.1 million of them in the civil service alone, and they cost 1 trillion rubles. In this regard, replacing them with new document management programs. Already today they are the most popular among Moscow's unemployed.

In addition to these professions, scientists from Skolkovo identify logisticians, system administrators, credit managers, bank employees, set installers and other specialists whose work today requires, first of all, intellectual work.

"Scribblers" are under threat

Serious controversy, especially in the media, was caused by the fact that the specialties of journalist and reporter were added to the endangered professions. According to the compilers of the Atlas of Occupations, which has been actively discussed by the US Department of Labor since 2007, media employees should be replaced by regular ones social media . The fact is that today news is spread by ordinary users, and the previously working model, configured to hunt for sensations, will gradually become a thing of the past. And with it, the need for reporters and journalists who will report from the scene will disappear. In the future, in order not to end up with nothing, the “shark of the pen” must be a universal soldier of journalism - he must not only be able to write, but also conduct radio broadcasts, be able to make original films, write good books, and create other media products - otherwise it will simply not be in demand.

A similar fate awaits proofreaders - as software and artificial intelligence develop, they will be replaced by text editors that will edit text with high quality. It is worth paying special attention to commercial advertising writers - copywriters. Once in-demand specialists are increasingly complaining about the market being overcrowded with poorly educated, self-taught scribblers, as a result of which the quality of texts, and therefore fees, are falling. In Skolkovo, for example, they are sure that today it is easier to train secretaries in this craft than to keep an expensive specialist in writing articles on staff.

Among other “dying” professions are consultants - the development of the Internet makes it possible to abandon consultants on specific issues, replacing them with online assistants. The development of navigation systems will make it possible to do away with navigators, although now they are used exclusively in motor sports. New software will also replace testers, and web-based graphics technology will replace doubles and stuntmen in films. Museum staff will also be under threat - Skolkovo experts have classified exhibit curators, ticket takers, and tour guides as endangered professions. They, like representatives of many other blue-collar professions, will have to be replaced by robots. By the way, about working professions.

"Dying" blue-collar professions

Despite the fact that blue-collar professions are traditionally in demand on the labor market, 25 of them were included by Skolkovo scientists on the list of those that will disappear in the next 15 years. And if the watchman, elevator operator and postman do not raise any special questions, then there are positions that, it would seem, have never been threatened. For example, call center operators. Apparently, scientists predict the automation of the process of communication with clients, which will be performed by robotic chat bots. No less doubtful is the disappearance of seamstresses. Of course, today there are automated sewing workshops where machines do the work, but it is quite difficult to believe that people will completely abandon individual designer items.

On the contrary, what has long been dictated by practice is the abandonment of traffic police inspectors.

Yes, cameras programmed to catch violators often make many mistakes, but they do not take bribes or try to attribute a dubious traffic violation. And if they try, it’s with good intentions, and not in order to receive a bribe! In addition to them, the Atlas of New Professions predicts “aging” for janitors, concrete mixer workers, foremen, dry cleaners and even machinists. There are also professions where the use of robotics will protect people’s lives. For example, miners, drillers and miners will disappear, which, however, will not only save employers from hundreds of casualties in production, but will also reduce the cost of the mining process.

Among others are security guards, porters, trainers, waiters, parking attendants, couriers, cooks and representatives of other professions whose work, or at least part of it, can be automated by machines. Of course, there is no need to be afraid of this. Technology will not yet be able to fully replace humans. Flexibility of mind, creativity, ingenuity, originality of ideas, artistry and other human prerogatives will remain a priority for people in the labor market for the next 15-20 years - machines are still capable of performing only automatic functions, such as swinging a shovel or forging and stamping.

In the end, even if machines can replace creativity, the individual human touch will always remain valuable. A striking example of this is souvenirs made with human warmth or clothes with the inscription Hand made. There is no doubt that how more features we hand over to machines, the more we can value human labor, be it food production, determining a diagnosis, drawing up a statement of claim or writing an opinion article. Another question is that there is no need to expect mass demand for such services.

In 10-15 years, artificial intelligence will leave millions of people unemployed, experts warn

From an employer’s point of view, computers are more profitable than people: they cost less and work more efficiently, photo: Robohunter
Computers can already do some tasks much better than people. Experts say: in just 10-15 years, artificial intelligence will displace humans from many professions and leave millions of people unemployed.

“Strana” looked into what professions are in danger of extinction, whether the power of computers is inevitable and how this threatens humanity.

Robot vs Human

Monopolization by artificial intelligence (AI) (the scientifically correct name is “deep neural networks”) of all spheres of human life is no longer a futurological idea, but an economic calculation. Leading results scientific research warn that in the coming decades the world will face unemployment of appalling proportions. This can provoke riots and worsen social inequality, poverty and other social problems.

Thus, according to Oxford University, over the next 20 years in the United States, every second workplace will be automated - 47% of workers will be replaced by machines. In China – 77%.

The Youth Advocacy Group Australia (FYA) warns that about 70% of young people in Australia are now employed in occupations where the impact of automation will be "radical". That is, in fact, in twenty years their knowledge and professional skills will no longer be needed by anyone - computers will perform the same functions for them. The only difference is that the employer will not have to pay wages to the machines, and taxes from it to the state.

From an employer’s point of view, a robot is more profitable than a human: it does everything faster and cheaper. Moreover, modern AI can also learn. Moreover, while a person may take years to master a new skill, a computer spends seconds on it. The person cannot stand the competition.

“We are approaching a time when machines will surpass humans in almost every activity,” Moshe Vardi, a professor of computer engineering and director of the Institute of Information Technology, said in his report. “I believe that society needs to face this problem before it arises.” "If machines are able to do almost everything that people can do, what will they be left to do?"

Vardi predicts that in 30 years, robots will be able to do almost everything that people can do. And this will lead to more than 50% of the planet’s inhabitants becoming unemployed, and society will plunge into total procrastination.

According to the International Federation of Robotics, the leader in automation is South Korea, where there are 531 robots per 10 thousand workers. China is still lagging behind: there are only 49 robots per 10 thousand, but the country ranks first in the rate of increase in robotics units.

Ukraine, however, will not be embraced by the automation trend as quickly as the West, experts say, due to relatively cheap labor. In general, in relation to Europe, Ukraine will begin to feel the invasion of computers with a delay of about 10 years. According to experts, the higher the average salary in Ukraine becomes, the more often employers will give preference to robots over people.

Experts reassure: automation is a historically natural process, and humanity has already experienced something similar before. In the 18th and 19th centuries, with the beginning of the industrial revolution, for example, cars first displaced horses from the sphere of transport, but now they can also replace people. ATMs, self-service centers, and, more recently, online banking have already replaced an entire army of bank employees. And you need to take this calmly.

“There was once such a profession - human calculators who counted on adding machines. Some scientists believe that artificial intelligence appeared when people invented a calculator that could solve the same mathematical problems much faster and better than a person,” says Artem Chernodub, PhD, AI researcher at Clikque Technology.

The power of neural networks is that their teacher is the limitless Internet space. Robots can no longer do only what they were originally programmed to do.

“Recently, a neural system developed its own encryption system and taught this system to another neural network. AI today already works in such a way that even the architect of this network no longer understands how it does it. It changes itself from the inside. It works on the principle of the human brain - that’s why it it’s called neural,” notes reputation management expert Boris Tizenhausen.

It is Deep Learning ("Deep learning" - algorithms that allow AI to learn and improve itself without human intervention - Ed.) that has reduced the cost of computing, and therefore the cost of the computers themselves. This is now leading to mass automation of professions.

“One gigaflops (a measure of computer performance - the number of mathematical operations that a computing system performs per second, Ed.) - now costs about 6 cents, in 2008 it cost about 50 dollars, and in 1997 - about 40 thousand dollars,” leads example Artem Chernodub - Computers have become more powerful and, accordingly, cheaper. A modern mobile phone is more powerful than the most advanced computer was 10 years ago, and it is now accessible to most people, while a computer 30 years ago was a luxury. train deep neural networks on large amounts of data, even just 1 terabyte of images, and get from them behavior similar to human behavior, and sometimes even beyond human capabilities, this seemed fantastic 10 years ago.”

The capabilities of neural networks are truly impressive. Their influence is especially noticeable in the direction of chatbots. Take the startup Luka, which generates dialogues with characters from various works: after the death of singer Prince, they created a chat with the musician, analyzing interviews with him in publicly available sources.

Two design options for the same product. The left one is human. The right one is suggested by the computer (Within Enhance program). The most incredible thing is that the design of the computer is more natural and pleasing to the eye. Although the AI ​​did not rely on personal experience– he only strived for maximum efficiency.

Another impressive example is when the artificial intelligence AlphaGo, created by a division of Google, beat the European champion in the game of checkers Go. Go surpasses even chess in complexity, with millions of unpredictable moves.

“At Google, they trained the neural network this way: they loaded it with data from all the games that could be found, and the system gave priority to those moves that made the computer win, and eventually learned to play at the level of the average player,” says Boris Tizenhausen. “Then Google forced this AI to play with another AI. They made millions of moves per second, and in the end no one won. But by playing with each other, they improved in the end, AlphaGo beat the European champion in checkers Go with a score of 5:0. The champion was upset."

Martin Ford, author of the book "Rise of the Robots", is sure that automation can no longer be stopped. "It's part of capitalism to constantly strive for higher productivity," he says. Robotization of production is beneficial to almost everyone, except workers without academic degrees, and they are the ones who will be most affected by mass robotization.

Dying professions

According to experts, today almost any profession that is associated with a repeatable algorithm of actions is under threat of extinction. Roughly speaking, if you do the same routine work every day from morning to evening, connected with the constant collection, processing and analysis of data, it makes sense to think about changing your profession.

Some positions will disappear altogether, while others will be forced to modernize to meet the new realities of the technological world. “Strana”, together with experts, has compiled a list of 25 professions that are at risk.

1. Drivers

The development of AI will inevitably affect taxi drivers, and indeed all carriers. In the United States, it is predicted that in 15 years all transport will become automated. Self-propelled vehicles will replace taxi and public transport drivers, excavator operators, truck drivers, and chauffeurs.

Tesla and Google have been testing self-driving cars in the US for a year now. In Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania), as well as in Singapore, unmanned vehicles have already begun to be used as taxis. And the Russian Federation and Finland are even negotiating to create infrastructure for unmanned communication between the countries.

By 2025, American automakers plan to mass produce self-driving cars for a wide range of customers. They will not have a steering wheel or pedals. For what?

Intelligent transport systems (ITS) will help avoid accidents: cars will read information from each other, know about oncoming traffic, and change the trajectory and speed depending on this data. There won’t even be a need for a traffic light - the cars themselves will see that another car is crossing their road and avoid collisions.

Flying car design project. Photo: 3DNews

The only thing that is currently hindering the widespread adoption of self-driving cars is the poor condition of the roads. But this obstacle is temporary. It is possible that soon there will be no need for roads for cars - they will fly through the air. Terrafugia has been working on such a flying car since 2013, and it is currently undergoing testing. The flight in it will also be controlled computer system– the user only needs to specify the destination.

2. Conductors and controllers

Following the drivers, conductors will disappear. In some cities, trains already run on their own, and fares are automatically read from bank cards using phones.

3. Conveyor workers

Robots are replacing manual labor in manufacturing. Thus, Adidas is building a fully automated plant in Germany, where everything - from clothing design to sewing - is done by robots. The process of producing a pair of sneakers from start to finish takes about five hours. By comparison, in Adidas' current supply chain in Asia, a similar process could take several weeks. Robots will also be able to quickly create shoes to order for a specific client - a significant competitive advantage.

4. Security guards

The security services sector is also being computerized. Concierges, security guards, and watchmen will be replaced by person identification systems, which, due to the increasing frequency of terrorist threats, are already being introduced everywhere in places with large crowds of people. This is convenient and effective: the computer recognizes a person’s face and immediately determines whether he has a criminal record, is potentially dangerous or not, and whether he has been seen in contact with criminals. By the way, in this regard, AI will significantly complicate the work of burglars: the computer will instantly determine whether a neighbor or a stranger has entered the entrance.

“Now in Britain, the facial recognition system in the subway also connects to a person’s accounts on social networks, determines whether he is a member of terrorist groups - and if several at the same time suspicious people they enter the metro, the system immediately sends a signal to the police,” Boris Tizenhausen gives an example.

5. Salespeople and cashiers

In Seattle, Amazon opened the world's first store without cash registers, sales assistants and queues. Scanning devices automatically scan the goods at the exit and withdraw money from the account. This is a real revolution in shopping.

It is based on Just Walk Out technology. It automatically detects when products are removed from the shelves and returned to their place, and creates a virtual basket. Based on this, immediately after the customer leaves the store, he receives an invoice.

“All mass professions - such as cashiers, salespeople, resellers, merchandisers, warehouse workers, even waiters - can be automated, which means they will be automated. Go to McDonald's near the Louvre in Paris - very few people work there. Because social the standards are too high, and it’s expensive to hire a person even at McDonald’s, because he has to pay at least 1,600 euros. That’s why everything is being robotized,” says Chernodub.

6. Consultants

Today in the virtual world they are successfully replaced by chatbots. They provide online purchasing advice and help customers resolve product problems. Experts do not rule out that soon special robots will appear in stores that will present company products, greet visitors, tell them about the characteristics of the product, showing its images on the screen. Based on facial expressions and body language, robots will recognize human emotions and respond accordingly to them.

7. Accountants

With the introduction of electronic document management, the need for a huge layer of people who did paperwork, transferred documents from place to place and entered data into databases disappears. In fact, any person himself will be able to submit declarations, draw up basic documents for opening his own enterprise, for example. Just a few years ago, companies hired an accountant specifically for this purpose.

8. Financial staff

Here we are talking not only about the banal rearrangement of papers. Software effectively replaces brokers and traders.

Thus, since 2000, the number of financial employees on Wall Street has decreased by about one-third. The computer instead conducts hundreds of thousands of transactions, making decisions on purchase and sale within a split second based on data that is automatically collected from the market and exchange services. During this time, a person will only have time to sip coffee.

“Already now, on the American stock exchange, 40% of decisions on buying or selling shares are made by AI. Traders have many special programs that determine trends, analyze quotes on several exchanges at once and build mathematical model how they will move forward. A person is not capable of this,” says Boris Tizenhausen.

9. Translators

In fact, each of us unwittingly contributes to the extinction of this profession: every time you enter text into an online translator, you are teaching it. If you indicate that a word in a sentence is translated incorrectly, the computer remembers this. With each such correction, it learns, and machine translation becomes more and more advanced. Google began using neural networks for translation at the end of 2016 - the number of errors in text translations was reduced by 60%.

Now the search giants Yandex and Google are testing neural systems with in-depth morphological analysis, which take a radically new approach to translating texts. Here's an example: a "translator" was taught to translate from Japanese to English and from Korean to English. Suddenly it turned out that the AI ​​was able to translate directly from Japanese to Korean, although it was not taught to do so. The neural network itself created its own translation algorithm, in which an intermediary language (English) was not needed.

Experts assure: over time, the vocabulary of a smartphone will become equal to that of a human. AI will even be able to create its own language. Humanity will forget what language barriers are: there will no longer be a need to spend years learning a foreign language - your smartphone will easily and competently provide simultaneous translation into any language on the planet.

10. Call center operators

Many companies have already replaced call center operators with automated programs that respond to customer complaints and offer them appropriate solutions. If the robot cannot cope with the problem itself, it automatically switches the subscriber to a “live” employee.

11. Programmers and web designers

In the near future, specialties that are now considered intellectual will be recognized as “workers”: programming, web design, 3D design. Today, a machine can easily do all this for a person.

For example, in order to model and make a denture, now a dental specialist must study for many years and obtain the appropriate qualifications, and the manufacture of such a prosthesis itself is very expensive. But today, 3D printers can print dentures quickly and cheaply. And soon such specialists will not be needed.

As for website development, according to experts, neural networks will soon learn to independently develop both the layout and design of websites, applications and programs. A person will simply set the parameters he needs.

“Already, programmers write code differently than programmers did twenty years ago, when they had to remember all the commands by heart. Now the program itself offers the programmer codes, and he selects the ones he needs. This will continue to be automated. I think it will get to the point where that a person will say: “Siri, write me such and such a program.” And Siri will write it,” says Artem Chernodub.

12. Guides

Even today AI easily determines where we are, gives historical information, shows photographs and virtual overviews of the area.

"A neural network can provide much more information and adapt to your interests. Targeted content is now coming first - Facebook works using this algorithm, showing what you are interested in, Google, etc. The system understands what you are interested in and presents this is exactly the way in which it will be interesting for you to see it. It is clear that “live” guides will remain, but they will become more exotic,” predicts Boris Tizenhausen.

13. Soldiers

Unmanned aircraft, drones, security robots, monitoring systems already cope with many tasks much more better than man and even make decisions whether to open fire or not, identifying the enemy by uniform and weapon. In the near future, experts say, they will begin to replace live soldiers in ground missions. Soon a person will remotely control tanks and planes without participating in battles himself.

Here we cannot help but recall the autonomous tracked vehicle MAARS (Modular Advanced Armed Robotic System) - this is a robot. His arsenal includes a machine gun, as well as tear, fragmentation, high-explosive and smoke grenades. At the same time, MAARS is capable of not only killing, but also saving – defusing mines and pulling wounded people from the battlefield.

14. Builders

Construction is already partially automated. It is no longer necessary to build a house - it can be printed on a special construction 3D printer. A person chooses the house design he likes, presses one button and a giant 3D printer prints the necessary blocks from concrete or other material.

The WinSun company in China has been developing such houses since 2014. And a Shanghai 3D house printer can create ten buildings from construction and industrial waste. The cost of producing one such house is no more than 5 thousand dollars.

15. Food producers

3D printers may also soon take over the mass production of human food. By and large, you can load any materials into them, and why not do the same with edible products. Natural Machines has already presented a similar development. The Foodini 3D printer allows you to load up to five different ingredients into it - you can set the necessary program, and the dish will be quickly “printed”. The result is still more like fast food, so high-end restaurant chefs don’t have to worry for now.

16. Travel agents

“Even five years ago there were travel agency offices on every corner, but now travel agents have virtually disappeared: they have been replaced by automatic platforms for booking and ordering tickets and places to stay. Those who remain on the market now are focused mainly on older people who are not trust electronic payment systems, but like their clients, they are already reaching their end of life,” notes Boris Tizenhausen.

17. Astronauts

There is a place for robotics in space. Robots are already doing menial work at the station. And the Robonaut2 (R2) robot from NASA and General Motors is already navigating the expanses of the earth’s orbit. R2 is capable of operating both inside the ISS and in outer space. And he doesn’t need a bulky spacesuit for this. Subsequently, R2 is planned to land on the Moon - it is safe and inexpensive.

18. Postmen and couriers

Delivery services are already gradually being taken over by drones and other similar devices. From the warehouse – directly to your home, conveniently and quickly.

Medicine, along with defense, are leaders in investments in AI development.

Thus, at the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York, they implemented an automatic medical diagnostic system using the Watson supercomputer. He determines the diagnosis more accurately than doctors and selects the optimal treatment method for each individual case. The accuracy of Watson's diagnoses is due to the fact that he studied 600,000 medical studies (about 2 million pages of text).

Less complex diseases will soon be able to be diagnosed using a mobile phone. London-based startup Your.MD is developing an app for iOS and Android devices that can listen to a person's complaints via text or voice and determine their illness.

Robot surgeons are already performing operations and stitching tissue together at the micro level. Instead of suturing, doctors now use robotic staplers. There are also robotic anesthesiologists; since 2013, these systems have been approved in the United States. Their use instead of the services of a professional anesthesiologist in the American market can save from $450 to $1850 per patient.

20. Pharmacists

Robots have already begun distributing medications to patients. In San Francisco, the UCSF Medical Center installed experimental machines in two hospitals that, after receiving an electronic prescription from a doctor, weigh out the required doses of medications, package them into pills and give them to the patient.

Robots can replace nannies and caregivers. The Japanese company NEC has developed a robot called PaPeRo that can entertain people and care for children and the disabled, helping them develop communication skills. The robot can conduct a dialogue in a natural and pleasant voice, tell jokes, tell fortunes, make riddles, remind you to take medications, and transmit voice messages from a person to other people, whom PaPeRo recognizes by their faces.

22. Fitness trainers

This profession, according to experts, is facing a serious transformation. Training is already conducted in many mobile applications by a robot - it’s cheaper, and online broadcasting can reach an unlimited number of users.

23. Teachers

Now you can get a diploma from any university remotely. One teacher can teach not ten people, as many fit in the classroom, but thousands of people at the same time. Experts believe that the industry will experience some natural selection, and the teaching will continue to be truly highly qualified minds who are truly valued in the professional environment and have exceptional knowledge.

24. Journalists

Yes, the person who writes this article may also find himself without a job in a dozen or two years.

Electronic media workers are at risk. The Los Angeles Times, Associated Press, Forbes and other well-known media outlets are already actively using robots - they create operational financial reports, results of sports matches and provide weather information. Robots will collect information much faster than journalists, find out “who, what, when, where, how and why,” even interview experts and draw up the final information material. Narrative Science predicts that in 15 years, 90% of news reports will be generated automatically.

Of course, we are not talking about columnism and the genre of artistic reporting, bordering on literature - here a computer cannot surpass a person in the subtlety of observations, the skill of conveying living emotions and the beauty of style. At least for now.

25. Priests

Don't rush to be indignant. Of course, robots will not be able to fully replace clergy, but AI is already being partially introduced into the church. You don’t have to look far for examples: last year in Lviv they created a service for ordering prayers via the Internet. In addition, for several years now, in order to put a note in the Western Wall, it is not at all necessary to go to Jerusalem - you just need to leave your message on the online representation of the shrine.

All hope for creativity

Experts insist: only professions associated with monotonous manual labor will disappear, in which there is no creative, intellectual, creative component, and most importantly, the need for purely human empathy.

“Indeed, some professions will disappear, but only those that can be fully automated. Human resources will still be in demand, for example, in the “Love and Care” industry - those areas where a machine simply cannot replace the component of human warmth and participation. This and the work that volunteers do today - caring for the elderly and sick, supporting victims, helping people with disabilities", says HR specialist Larisa Bruver.

Bruver does not believe that in 15 years we will all be looking for new job. “The work landscape will certainly change, but it will shift towards intellectual and creative work - areas where even self-learning algorithms will either not be able to show the same productivity, or robotization will be artificially limited due to the risk of losing control over the process,” says expert.

The more complex and creative a profession is, the less it is threatened by automation. Artists, presenters, designers, actors, showmen, artists - there will continue to be demand for them.

However, today robots have already learned to create works of art. Andrey Karpaty from Stanford University has created a program into which you can load certain texts, say Shakespeare's sonnets, and it itself will begin to generate texts in the same style. Using the same principle, neural networks can already draw paintings in the style of Van Gogh and Picasso, and generate music a la Bach. There is even a music album “Neural Defense”, the lyrics for which were written by a robot.

How valuable and high-quality such “creativity” is is another question. For those who are inclined towards primitive consumption, there will not be much difference between the work of Mozart and a robot. But can this be considered art?

“Here the question is more for art historians. But I will say from myself: sometimes you come to the PinchukArtCentre, look at a piece of asphalt displayed there and think - what kind of nonsense? And then a modern art critic will come up to you and explain that this is actually art “,” says Artem Chernodub. “But seriously, I think that if people start buying paintings by artificial intelligence, it can be considered, if not art, then at least a product.”

It is reassuring that a robot can repeat, calculate, copy - but cannot create anything radically new. So far, computer creativity is just an imitation.

This is why the demand for human strangeness and genius will remain. Scientists, inventors, researchers, creators of art - people who do not create, but create - without them, the development of society, even with total automation of labor, is impossible. In addition, the ubiquity of robots has a significant advantage: against their background, the uniqueness and exclusivity inherent only in humans will be increasingly valued.

“No highly developed artificial intelligence can completely replace a person,” says Michio Kaku, an American physicist of Japanese origin. “We actually have much more advantages over machines than we can imagine. Robots do not have imaginative thinking, they do not have consciousness, intuition."

Therefore, the scientist advises: in order to succeed, you need to develop those abilities that are not available to robots: creativity, imagination, initiative, leadership qualities. Those countries that can balance commodity markets and cognitive-creative potential have a much greater chance of success.

But even if you can’t draw, sing, write music, and didn’t get a PhD from Harvard, there’s no need to panic. Technological progress both kills some professions and creates new ones.

According to the forecasts of scientists from Utrecht University, labor automation, although it will reduce the number of jobs, will allow companies to reduce production costs, and at the same time the prices of goods - which will increase the purchasing power of citizens and create new jobs in other industries.

In addition, robots will still require human supervision for a long time. There will be a need for the profession of roboethicist - a professional who will train robots and ensure that they do not harm humans.

In any case, we need to learn to interact with AI. Modern children have it easier in this regard - they learn to handle a tablet before speaking. For older people, of course, it will be more difficult to relearn. But now is the time to think about whether you want to do what you are doing now for the rest of your life. The main thing is to navigate and adapt to the new technological reality in time. Progress can no longer be stopped.

IN modern world everything happens quickly. Often people have to manage the house, raise children, and work at the same time. In such a frantic pace, it is difficult to find free time to receive a quality education, without which it is impossible to advance in career ladder. An excellent way out of this situation is distance education. With the help of this form of training, you can obtain the necessary knowledge without interrupting your homework and workplace.

Advantages and disadvantages of distance education

This option of obtaining a diploma has its pros and cons. The term “distance education” presupposes the organization of an educational process in which the teacher develops a special program based on independent mastery of the material. Such a learning environment involves separation of the student from the teacher in time and space. At the same time, modern forms distance learning leave a chance for a full dialogue through the use of modern technical means. Thanks to this format, it becomes possible for residents of those regions where there are no qualified teachers, high-quality training to higher education, the required level of qualification.

Pages of history

In European countries in the second half of the last century, so-called distance universities, virtual colleges. The forms of distance learning used were distinguished by a variety of pedagogical techniques and economic mechanisms.

Interactive activities between students and teacher

This term is used not only in domestic but also in foreign pedagogy. In a narrow sense, the concept of “interactive” is considered as a dialogue between the program and the user, the exchange of requests (text commands) and invitations (responses). The emergence of the opportunity to ask questions in any form and give detailed answers to them was the impetus for the emergence of universities with distance learning in large numbers. The user's activity and chances for interactivity directly depend on the technical capabilities of the program. In a broader sense, we are talking about dialogue between subjects through all available methods and means.

A priori of interactive communication is the telecommunications environment. The full-time distance learning form considers the student and the teacher as subjects communicating through real-time dialogue via email or teleconferences.

Organizational and methodological options for distance learning

Forms such as external studies are aimed at those students who, for various reasons, cannot study in the traditional (classroom) form. In 1836, the main task of which was to organize exams and issue degrees and certificates to students who were not studying in regular educational institutions. And it is still relevant today similar option education.

There are also forms of distance learning that involve studying at a specific university. It's about the whole system education for students who prefer distance learning, organized using modern information technologies, including computer telecommunications (off-campus). Many of the world's leading universities have developed programs to issue certificates in various areas of study. At the Australian University (South Wales), the distance learning form has been chosen by 5 thousand students. If we consider that on full-time department There are only 3 thousand students enrolled, the scale of distance work is impressive.

Some educational institutions enter into cooperation agreements. In this case, the use of distance learning helps improve the quality of education.

Organization of distance learning

In modern Russia, there are special educational institutions that are created for talented and gifted children. Among the major centers, we would like to highlight the Open University of London, on the basis of which various courses for schoolchildren have recently been organized. IN technological university Engineers are trained using distance learning.

Autonomous educational systems involve acquiring knowledge using radio or television programs, special printed manuals and methodological recommendations. This form is mainly used for adult audiences who were unable to complete the task in a timely manner. school education. Special programs are being developed aimed at increasing computer literacy, health trainings.

Distance learning models

A single model involves the use of one information channel or a single one. For example, the educational process is carried out through television broadcasts, through correspondence. This model considers printed materials as the main means of obtaining knowledge. There is no two-way communication here - traditional distance learning is assumed.

Multimedia is associated with the use of various means of education: printed manuals, computer programs on removable media, video, audio recordings. The leading position belongs to the one-way transmission of information. If necessary, additional consultations, face-to-face meetings, exams, and training seminars are conducted.

Hypermedia is considered the next generation of distance learning. The model involves the use of the latest information technologies, where the leading role is given to computer telecommunications. The simplest option is to use email and conferences.

Highlights of remote learning at the educational institution

The organization of full-fledged distance learning is impossible without the use of information technology. There are two main points to highlight:

• Distance education does not imply abandonment of the classical (traditional) version of education. No matter how advanced the technical capabilities, learning through ICT is a necessity, but not a panacea. Of course, such opportunities cannot be neglected, because with the help of technical means it is possible to improve the quality of education.
• The main technologies used in distance learning: video conferencing, computer testing, electronic textbooks.

Working with children as part of the implementation of priority national projects

In modern Russia not only graduate School is rapidly developing in the direction of distance learning. At the initiative of the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation, a special project on inclusive education for schoolchildren was developed. Children with vision, musculoskeletal, and hearing problems have the opportunity to study without leaving the walls of their home. The state has taken care of equipping such schoolchildren with a full set of computer equipment. The first results of the program's implementation confirm its timeliness and relevance.

Conclusion

The use of various methods and forms of training allows us to obtain the desired result - to educate a harmoniously developed personality. In many situations, distance learning becomes the only option for obtaining higher education. Science does not lag behind the trends that occur in modern society. Each school, secondary and higher education institution has its own Form Choice distance education remains with the student or the student’s parents (legal representatives). This type of education is the future; with its help, everyone has equal opportunities to receive the desired education.

All more schools Today they actively work with e-mail, use remote access to information databases and educational resources on the Internet, create their own websites, participate in interschool and international projects, courses, and Olympiads.

The development of the distance learning system is due to a number of its advantages and opportunities. This is first of all more flexible educational conditions for children who could not or cannot carry it out in the usual way due to distance from qualified educational institutions, physical disabilities, individual characteristics and needs.

Distance learning can meet additional educational needs of students . A talented student at a rural school can, for example, simultaneously study remotely from highly qualified specialists located anywhere in the country and the world, without leaving his place of residence. With the help of electronic networks, a student from any city, town or village has access to the world's cultural and scientific treasures and can study at prestigious universities around the world.

It is expected that as information technology develops, a person will devote up to 40% of his total study time to distance learning, combining them with full-time classes (40%) and self-education (20%).

Distance learning has the following advantages over face-to-face learning:

Operational (overcoming barriers in space and time, obtaining relevant “fresh” information, fast feedback);

Information (the availability of educational arrays, which are located on specialized servers, are delivered to the consumer using interactive web channels, and are published in teleconferences, mailing lists and other means of the Internet, is increasing);

Communication (the number of potential participants in training is increasing - schoolchildren, teachers, specialists who quickly interact with each other using electronic networks; territorial restrictions for conducting Internet lessons, projects, Olympiads are being lifted);

Pedagogical (due to the specifics of remote telecommunications, learning becomes more motivated, interactive, technologically advanced and individualized; publishing student work on the Internet, their examination and evaluation is simplified);

Psychological (creating more comfortable emotional and psychological conditions for student self-expression compared to traditional ones, removing psychological barriers and problems, eliminating errors in oral communication);

Economic (total training costs are reduced by approximately 40% due to savings in transportation costs, costs of renting or maintaining premises, reduction in paperwork and replication of benefits);

Ergonomic (distance learners and teachers have the opportunity to distribute class time according to a convenient schedule and pace, choose and use the most suitable technology and computer equipment for classes).

Distance learning allows educational institutions to increase the number of students . If a school does not have too many students, but has highly qualified teachers and they have free time, they can teach those who do not physically attend the educational institution for one reason or another. In the context of a significant reduction in the number of schoolchildren in the future, this is also additional income for talented teachers (according to experts, due to the demographic decline, by 2010, instead of the 21 million schoolchildren present today, there will be only 13 million students in Russia).

The school can invite teachers from other regions to work . For example, a school in Perm can entrust the education of children French a teacher who lives in France, and French children could be taught Russian by a teacher from Russia.

All teachers need advanced training courses. But visiting them usually takes a lot of time and money. Using the Internet you can improve skills regularly without interruption from the main job, using the advantages of remote telecommunications.

Modern distance learning is carried out mainly with the help of technologies and Internet resources.

Distinctive features of distance learning:

1. Distance in space between the teacher and the students, at least for most of the educational process.

2. The use of educational multimedia tools and electronic resources, both remote and in the immediate environment of students.

3. Providing telecommunications between teachers and students, as well as between the students themselves.

4. Productive nature educational process, that is, obtaining as a result an educational product that differs from that which is used as the content of the electronic educational environment.

The globalization of distance education provides ample opportunities for developing countries to implement systematic tasks, of which the following are decisive:

A. Expanded Access MBA programs offered by institutions in America, Canada, Australia, and the UK are now available in most developing countries. There are many other programs offered by developed countries that are available in developing countries. Students in developing countries have access to education and training programs offered by many developed countries. Now you can get a diploma of education abroad without leaving your country. Many developing countries with limited educational resources receive wide access to world educational and teaching aids, to complement and enhance its efforts to provide education to a large number of people. Satellite technologies are widely used by developed countries to transmit their educational programs to remote parts of countries such as India. There is a great need for education in technical and professional fields such as management, computer use, education, multimedia, etc. The list of foreign institutions in India offering distance education programs is very impressive and large. This has resulted in more opportunities for people in India to get education abroad.

B. Learning using other people's experience and knowledge. Thanks to modern technologies communication there is easy access to sources of information, materials and quick communication between people, which contributes to the acquisition of education using other people's experience and accumulated knowledge. Various methods, used by distance education institutions in the development, creation and delivery of materials, become easily accessible through databases. Information Technology allowed the development of educational materials for distance education, building on existing knowledge and practice, and made the learning process more accessible. Globalization, in this sense, facilitates the process of acquiring knowledge using existing experience and practice.

C. Mutually beneficial partnership.

The proverb “Two is better than one” holds true both in distance education and in many other areas. Partnership agreements between participants located in different countries, again enabled by technology, can contribute to the provision of services that extend beyond any one agency/institution. Partnerships in developing equitable distance education will complement expertise and resources and contribute to the creation of improved learning materials. One such example international cooperation made possible by globalization is a partnership between the Commonwealth of Learning (COL), Canada, and the national Indira Gandhi Open University. They offered Masters Program in Distance Education (MADE) under the Rajiv Gandhi Affiliate Program. The collaboration between the Commonwealth of Learning(COL), Canada and the Indira Gandhi National Open University, India, is one such example. international activities made possible by the process of globalization. They offer the Masters Program in Distance Education (MADE) with the support of Scientific Society Rajiv Gandhi. Broad globalization processes have also influenced the activities of the European Community in the development of distance education (John Field, 1995). Partnership agreements can effectively meet the educational needs of small developing countries, particularly the development of educational materials, which are a fundamental component in distance education.

D. Competitive Environment

Increased access can lead to increased competitiveness. For example, as mentioned earlier, some of the world's best administrative and computer programs developed in certain advanced countries are available to many other countries, including developing countries. This is supposed to initiate a spirit of competition among local agencies/institutions. Technological boundary spanning can threaten the existence of mediocre institutions/programs. Striving for better motivates others to improve themselves. The free market can reject imperfect performers. Global distance education programs bring competitiveness to local distance education institutions/institutes. This process may lead to improved organization of distance education.

Development of distance education in the world

An analysis of any training system shows that the main elements of training for hundreds of years were:

• * teacher (teacher);
• * audience (laboratory) in one form or another;
• * educational materials for the course being studied;
• * library as an accumulator and custodian of knowledge.

Network distance learning, via the Internet, unlike others,

provides the opportunity to study in a place convenient for you, according to an individual schedule, using information resources remote over a considerable distance educational institution, having constant contact with the teacher of the basic educational institution, students and administration. Such systems are becoming an integral part of education at various levels throughout the world. This is explained by the low cost of education (3-5 times lower than full-time education), the opportunity to receive education at a time convenient for the student and in a place convenient for him.

Distance learning systems have been developed and successfully used around the world, offering services for studying various curricula and courses. Network distance learning systems consist of the following basic elements:

• * educational institution as an organizational structure of distance learning;
• * information resources - databases of educational and reference materials;
• * hardware and software for supporting EB technology;
• * distance learning teachers (tutors);
• * trainees (students);

An important aspect in distance education is the combination of technologies used. IN educational process two groups of non-interactive technologies are used (for example, providing educational materials in printed form, on audio and visual media or CD-ROM), and interactive - computer (for example, video conferencing, e-mail, etc.).

The effectiveness of learning when using DL tools depends on how efficient the connection between the student and the teacher is. Without contact between the student and the teacher, it is impossible to build an effective learning system.

In distance learning systems, the following forms of interaction between students, teachers and administration of the educational institution are used: traditional mail, fax, computer technology, video conferences using one of the forms of television broadcasting, audio conferences and video conferences based on telephone technologies, intranet systems and the global Internet.

The most universal and promising technology that provides access to the distance learning system for both students and teachers at any level of information resources - intra-university, national and global - is Internet network technology. In network technology can be implemented various ways and teaching methods: electronic textbooks and libraries, testing systems, means of communication for students, teachers and the administration of the educational organization.

In many Western countries, primarily in the USA, the distance learning industry has been actively developing for more than 10 years, as evidenced by the figures below on the state of global education (including US education):

• * 50% of US corporations use distance learning technologies
• * More than 80% of US universities offer distance learning services.
• * The volume of the global e-learning market in 2004 amounted to 40 billion dollars (the volume of the traditional higher education market is several trillion dollars). Over the past 10 years, the volume of the e-education market has grown more than 2000 times
• * About 100 million people study online; The number of full-time students worldwide is 97 million.

By 2010, two-thirds of the world's education will be received via the Internet (according to forecasts of the American Educational Research Association)

Researchers of the US remote market give different estimates of its size and prospects for its development. The numbers themselves may differ, but the authors agree on one thing: the growth rate of this market is very high. According to the website www.Brainware.com, in 2002 the subsidiaries market in the United States was estimated at 10.3 billion, by 2006 it is expected to increase to 83.1, and by 2011 - to 212 billion dollars. Significant Corporate e-learning makes up part of the global DL market. Specialists from the International Data company (USA) estimate its prospects as follows: from 6.6 billion dollars in 2002 to 23.7 billion dollars in 2006. In the USA, according to this company, for corporate training in 2001 . 4.2 billion dollars were spent, by the end of 2005 this amount will increase to 18 billion dollars. According to other estimates, the size of the e-learning market in the United States will be 46 billion dollars by 2010. According to the American Society for Learning and Education. development, the share of time that American organizations will spend on e-training will increase from 10.5% in 2001 to 25% in 2004. According to analysts at eMarketer, the amount of revenue generated in the field of corporate e-learning in the United States was in 2002 from 6 to 7 billion dollars. In Japan, according to the Ministry public administration, Home Affairs, Postal and Communications, e-learning revenues are expected to be approximately $716 million in 2003, and revenues in this area are expected to increase to $1.73 billion by 2006.

The company’s specialists believe that such training will become more convenient and enjoyable, and will become cheaper. It will become widespread in global companies that need to train staff in various locations around the world.

One of the important trends recent years is a reduction in the share of training programs on CD-ROM and an increase in the number of training programs available via the Internet or corporate training portals (E-learning).

One of the most ambitious decisions in the field of “online” education, confirming the leading position of the United States in the CE market, is the project free education on the Web (OpenCourseWare or OCW), developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and representing a lot of materials on many disciplines, posted on specially created sites. In total there will be about a hundred such sites and they will contain everything that real ("offline") MIT students and graduate students have access to (the material will be presented both in the form of familiar text documents and in the form of streaming audio/video recordings of seminars, lectures, experiments). It is important that OCW will not be an alternative to studying at MIT. It will not be possible to obtain a diploma or defend a degree in this way. Work on the project has been going on since April 2001, it is very expensive (sponsors allocated $11 million for the first 27 months, each subsequent year will cost about $10 million) and it is planned that they will last at least another 10 years . To date, OCW exists only as a pilot project, containing about a twentieth of the information that will be available upon completion of the work. But even in this form, it is truly an invaluable resource, which simply has no analogues.